Okay, gang, so I listened to it (you can, too, here) and… yeah, this looks pretty good for those of us who don’t like the mandate. First, any hope that Scalia would uphold the law seems like a pipe dream. And Kennedy seemed to be very troubled by this statute.
So let me show you the parts I found interesting or significant, for what it is worth, in chronological order.
Early on Alito highlights a theme of the anti-mandate forces: that this is not just about insuring that when you go to the hospital that you already have set up a method of paying for the care, but instead this is about subsidizing the health insurance industry generally by forcing people who wouldn’t buy insurance to buy it. So it’s not really about solving a free rider problem alone:
JUSTICE ALITO:... Respondents -- the economists have supported -- the Respondents estimate that a young, healthy individual targeted by the mandate on average consumes about $854 in health services each year. So the mandate is forcing these people to provide a huge subsidy to the insurance companies for other purposes that the act wishes to serve, but isn't -- if those figures are right, isn't it the case that what this mandate is really doing is not requiring the people who are subject to it to pay for the services that they are going to consume? It is requiring them to subsidize services that will be received by somebody else.
GENERAL VERRILLI: No, I think that -- I do think that's what the Respondents argue. It's just not right. I think it -- it really gets to a fundamental problem with their argument.
Please note the Solicitor General is frequently referred to as “General Verrilli,” which is admittedly strange—I mean you picture generals only in military contexts—but it’s how it has been done for a while.
And early on Kennedy was hammering them with big doubts. Indeed right out of the gate, we get this exchange:
JUSTICE KENNEDY: Can you create commerce in order to regulate it?
GENERAL VERRILLI: That's not what's going on here, Justice Kennedy, and we are not seeking to defend the law on that basis.
In this case, the -- what is being regulated is the method of financing health, the purchase of health care. That itself is economic activity with substantial effects on interstate commerce.
And then later on he gets to the really big issue:
JUSTICE KENNEDY: Could you help -- help me with this. Assume for the moment -- you may disagree. Assume for the moment that this is unprecedented, this is a step beyond what our cases have allowed, the affirmative duty to act to go into commerce. If that is so, do you not have a heavy burden of justification?
I understand that we must presume laws are constitutional, but, even so, when you are changing the relation of the individual to the government in this, what we can stipulate is, I think, a unique way, do you not have a heavy burden of justification to show authorization under the Constitution?
GENERAL VERRILLI: So two things about that, Justice Kennedy. First, we think this is regulation of people's participation in the health care market, and all -- all this minimum coverage provision does is say that, instead of requiring insurance at the point of sale, that Congress has the authority under the commerce power and the necessary proper power to ensure that people have insurance in advance of the point of sale because of the unique nature of this market, because this is a market in which -- in which you -- although most of the population is in the market most of the time -- 83 percent visit a physician every year; 96 percent over a five-year period -- so virtually everybody in society is in this market, and you've got to pay for the health care you get, the predominant way in which it's -- in which it's paid for is insurance, and -- and the Respondents agree that Congress could require that you have insurance in order to get health care or forbid health care from being provided -